Experience Curves
Experience curves (or learning curves) describe how the unit cost of a technology falls as its cumulative installed capacity or production grows, usually expressed as a learning rate, the fractional cost reduction per doubling of cumulative capacity. Installed capacity acts as a proxy for R&D, learning by doing and learning by using, so these curves are used for “top down” forecasts of future costs that complement “bottom up” engineering-economic estimates. New technologies often show a cost rise during early commercialization before the decline sets in. See also CO2 Capture.
Experience curves for CO2 capture cost forecasting (2012)
Rubin et al. used the historical record of power plant SO2 and NOx controls as a benchmark for carbon capture (Rubin et al. 2012). Capital costs of wet FGD and SCR systems rose during early commercialization and then fell by about 13% per doubling of installed capacity, and by 50% or more after about two decades of deployment; FGD SO2 removal efficiency rose from about 70% to 95% between 1969 and 1995. Applying such learning rates to the components of PC, NGCC, IGCC and oxyfuel plants with capture suggests electricity cost reductions of up to about 30% after 100 GW of capture capacity worldwide, comparable to the high end of DOE engineering estimates. The authors stress that these reductions depend on deployment, which in turn requires a policy-created market. Summary: rubin2012.